Building on successes

Highlights from the World Climate Research Program Conference (WCRP)

Genève (Suisse), 26-28 august 1997

The Conference took place in Geneva, Switzerland, from 26 to 28 August 1997. Following a proposal of the 1995 ICSU review of WCRP, the Conference took stock of the progress made so far in all ongoing five projects and modelling activities, and discussed strategies and topics for the coming 10 to 15 years, also taking into account the needs of the policy-making community during the implementation of UN conventions.

The first completed WCRP project, the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) study, which lasted from 1985 to 1994, caught especially strong media interest, as the new observing system installed by TOGA across the Pacific Ocean, the TOGA Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array of moorings and sub-surface drifters, allowed to forecast the 1997 strong El Niño with coupled ocean atmosphere models. As early as November 1996 the models, developed under TOGA, which assimilated the ocean mixed layer and thermocline data in quasi real-time into the starting fields were correctly forecasting the El Niño event for the spring of this year. Therefore, countries derive major benefits from drought preparedness, adapted water resource management, appropriate agricultural practices and changed public health measures.

WCRP has strongly contributed to improved modelling of the coupled physical climate system by systematic models diagnosis and intercomparisons leading to more accurate descriptions of natural climate variability and giving increased confidence in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Based on this, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change) could furnish essential basic information to governments implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate.

Through a combined data and climate model analysis that has allowed the assessment of natural climate variability, a first suggestion of a discernible anthropogenic climate change signal became possible, as discussed in the Second Assessment of IPCC and supported by new evidence presented at the Conference.

The first systematic observations of the oceans three-dimensional structure combined with satellite altimetry within WCRPs World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) permit the development and testing of ocean models, enable improved assessment of water and energy transports and spatial patterns of sea level change, which are essential for understanding climate change and variability and for the mastanding climate change and variability and for the management of ocean and coastal resources.

WCRP also produced through GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) global data sets on radiative fluxes, clouds, precipitation, water vapour and the hydrological cycle needed for improved understanding and modelling as well as water resource management.

- assessing the nature and predictability of seasonal to inter-decadal variations of climate at global and regional scales, and providing the scientific basis for operational predictions of these variations for use in climate services in support of sustainable development

- detecting climate change and attributing causes, and projecting the magnitude and rate of human-induced climate change, regional variations thereof and related sea level rise, as needed for input to the IPCC, the UNFCCC and other conventions.

The conference considered the present WCRP project structure an efficient and flexible framework to tackle the priorities given. Appropriate modifications of the projects, in particular, the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS), should take into account the many specific proposals for future priorities also made by the Conference participants. WCRP should maintain an awareness and sensitivity to evolving user requirements. However, the main motivation of the WCRP must continue to be fundamental research into understanding the basic behaviour of the physical climate system.

- maintain and enhance, where necessary, the WMO World Weather Watch network and archive data in electronic form

- continue specialised hydrological, oceanographic and terrestrial networks as needed to support seasonal and longer-range predictions

- give greater financial support to the Global Climate Observing Systems (GCOS) as required under Articles 4.1 g, h and 5 of the UNFCCC

- give high priority to climate-related space missions.

The Conference also asked WCRP to further support the development of an operational ocean observing system and remain an example for free and unrestricted data exchange.

WCRP must interact with many partners and promote the involvement of scientists from developing countries. As a component of the Climate Agenda, the Integrated framework for the World Climate Programme, WCRP is the pillar in the research thrust New Frontiers in Climate Science and Prediction. It co-operates with IGBP in the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), a multi-disciplinary capacity building programme. Through START, WCRP contributes to a project on agriculture and climate variability aimed at improving agricultural output al local and national levels. The Conference asked WCRP to help build up research activities in developing countries by using to the extent possible existing institutions, strengthening co-operation between developing countries, seeking funds for sustained capacity building and encouraging developing countries to indicate their own priorities within the international global change research framework