FORMAT (FORest Modelling Assessment from Tree rings)

Sensitivity of Tree-Growth to Climate Change and Growth Modelling from Past to Future

The aim of this project is to assess the sensitivity of tree- growth to climate change in mountain and Mediterranean forests, both in its past variability and in the future as predicted by climate models for a CO2 doubling scenario. This will provide a basis to assess environmental and socio-economic impact of different tree-growth scenarios and to allow the development of strategies for sustainability in future forest management.

According to the up-dated priorities for the second phase (1997-1998) of the Environment and Climate RTD Programme ("a better climate change analysis and protecting our natural resources"), the following aspects are addressed through the FORMAT project : establishment and exploitation of high-resolution proxy data sets, development and validation of modelling tools for climate impact analysis through inter-annual variability of tree-growth in relation with climate variability, quantified evaluation of changes in wood production of forest ecosystems induced by expected climate changes.

As regards the first fulfilment of the requiring of Working Group II of IPCC (International Panel on Climatic Change) dealing with the distinction between uncertainties arising from unknowns related to the responses of systems to climate change and uncertainties related to the regional-scale climate projections themselves, the project proposes to quantify the impact of climate change on forests ecosystems in order to deliver quantitative estimation of the carbon storage produced by photosynthetic processes. As regards the second fulfilment dealing with the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of both climate change and environmental changes at a regional scale, tree-ring series involved in the project >provide unique records of climate variability and its influence on photosynthesis rate. Chronologies with annual resolution covering centuries allow to evaluate the link between climate variability and wood production on time-period much longer than that covered by instrumental data and on a spatial grid taking into account regional spatial variability of ecological conditions, including the most important, i.e. climate.

The FORMAT project answers to the requirements of different International Programmes (I.G.B.P.) on global change. In particular, it links up with the PAGES (Past Global Changes) project organisation. In that framework, by its geographical location, it can insert in the programme P.E.P. III (Pole Equator to Pole), providing by its data base the Afro-

European transect with proxydata complementary to those provided for the northern area by the ongoing European programme : "Tree ring Evidence of Climate Change in Northern Eurasia during the last 2 000 Years" (TECCNE).

The project is constructed around the collection and the gathering into a data base of both tree-ring (ring-width and densitometric values) and meteorological data (monthly to daily values) data. On three target areas (Figure 1), the tree-ring data set from the main coniferous species of Southern Europe must cover a grid dense enough to overlay the spatial variability of climate and forest environment, including man-induced variability. The meteorological data set is defined to represent at best the regional climate in the sampled forest sites.

Figure 1 - The three target areas

Tree-growth to climate models previously established will be used to predict the growth response of each tree-population to climate change as predicted by a 2xCO2 scenario. The climate perturbation is obtained from regionalised outputs of AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model) and will be transferred to the meteorological stations used in the calibration of response function. This predicted effect will be compared to the past natural variability, of both climate and tree ring series.

To obtain a global representation of coniferous forest diversity, core sampling and modelled growth will be mapped from stand to regional level using remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information System) techniques. The aim is to map tree growth for present, past and future. Figure 2 summarises the global strategy of the project.

Figure 2 - The global strategy of the project

From sampling to spatialisation the project is focused on an homogeneous processing of the data set gathered in the data base. Under the coordination of I.M.E.P, it associates researchers from Belgium, France, Italy and Spain. From field practice to data analysis, complementariness of the different researchers founds the synergies between the different approaches (dendroclimatology, ecology, ecophysiology, statistics, data-base management and remote sensing techniques)

PARTNERS INVOLVED IN THE PROJECT

Dr Lucien TESSIER - Institut Méditerranéen d'Ecologie et de Paléoécologie, (I.M.E.P., UMR 6100 from CNRS) -

Faculté des Sciences de St Jérôme, Avenue Escadrille Normandie Niemen 13397 MARSEILLE Cedex 20 (France)

Prof. Emilia GUTIERREZ - Dept d'Ecologia. Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Avenue Diagonal, 645 E- 08028 BARCELONA (Spain)

Dr Renzo MOTTA - Dipartimento di Agronomia, Selvicoltura e Gestione del Territorio (AGROSELVITER)Universita degli Studi di Torino - Via Leonardo da Vinci, 441-10095 GRUGLIASCO (Italy)

Dr Paola NOLA - Dipartimento di Ecologia del Territorio e Ambienti Terrestri (ECOTER) - Università degli Studi di Pavia - Via S. Epifanio 14 I-27100 - PAVIA (Italy)

Prof. Carlo URBINATI - Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi AgrofForestali (DTSAF) - Università degli Studi di Padova Agripolis - Via Romea I-35020 LEGNARO (PD) (Italy)

Dr Jean-Jacques BOREUX - Fondation Universitaire Luxembourgeoise 185 Avenue de Longwy B-6700 ARLON (Belgique)

Dr Eliane CUBERO-CASTAN - MEDIAS-FRANCE - 18 Avenue Edouard Belin - 31401 TOULOUSE Cedex 4 ( France)